And yes, it’s a lull. Or at least I believe it’s a lull, since I also believe that virus cases will eventually spike in the city again. As of this writing (August 22, 2020) the COVID-19 case numbers inside New York City are extremely low. According to the New York City Department of Health website, we’re averaging under 200 cases per week in the whole city, and have been this way for a while.
I talked about this happening in a previous post. At the end of this blog entry I predicted New York City would enter a period of recovery while the rest of the nation’s cases spiked to horrifically high levels. And that’s what’s happening right now. Warnings were not heeded – despite what the other States in the USA saw happen in Spain and Italy (and closer to home in New York and New Jersey), they took no real action to prevent it. So here we are.
Now I am making another prediction: cases will rise again in New York City and New York State starting around late September and October, and get worse throughout the winter. They won’t spike back to the insanely high levels we saw before, but that’s only because we’re going to have a second lockdown pretty quickly. Not only that, but the conventional flu will be around, and that will be bad too. People won’t know if they have COVID-19 or the old-fashioned flu, and that’s going to add to the chaos because everyone will be rushing to get tested to find out what they have. I hope I’m wrong, but that’s what I think is going to happen.
Since we are in a lull, my fellow New Yorkers, I suggest you stock up on all the things you were scrambling to stock up on back in February and March of 2020. Canned food and other non-perishable items, disinfectant alcohol, respirator masks, surgical masks, water. Get them before the pandemic panic-buying starts up again in autumn. That’s just my advice.
Okay, But What Is Life Like in NYC Now?
Right now, things are a strange version of almost-normal. A lot of places that are usually packed with people, such as Times Square, are relatively empty. There are no Broadway shows – Broadway theaters are all closed, and some of them are boarded up. Movie theaters are closed too. A lot of stores are gone for good. Nearly every place that is open has a sign warning you to wear a mask or they won’t let you inside.
There’s still no indoor dining, so hundreds of outdoor seating areas have been constructed in front of bars and restaurants all over the five boroughs, sometimes in the middle of streets, for people to drink and eat outdoors. That part is pretty nice, actually.
New Yorkers are for the most part still very cautious. Most people I see are wearing masks. Some are also wearing gloves and face shields. People respect social distancing guidelines as much as possible. And like in many places, there has been an explosion in bicycle usage in New York City as people look to avoid mass transit. I’ll be writing more about that in another article.
People seem to be spending a lot of time outside, either exercising, walking around or just relaxing. There’s lots of evidence that says the virus is less-likely to be transmitted outdoors, because sunshine and even a slight breeze can quickly destroy any exhaled virus particles. This seems to have been correct because a lot of people thought (and some hoped) that the recent anti-police brutality protests in New York City would cause a spike in virus cases, and that spike never happened. Of course, any New Yorker on that side of the political spectrum is smart enough to also wear a mask. Masks have been shown over and over again to reduce the transmission of respiratory infections from one person to another. So that was likely another factor as to why the protests did not contribute to the spread of the virus – most protestors were masked up.
So, What Now?
Right now, I would say enjoy the summer as much as you can. Do it safely. It’s been unusually hot around here lately, with many 90 degree F (33C) days, but keep that mask on no matter how hot it gets, as most of us have been doing. Hanging out in the park, having a picnic, or going to the beach are all great ideas since there’s room to distance yourself from people you don’t know and you’ll be out in the sunshine and the fresh air.
I think outdoor dining is fine too, as long as you pick a place where there’s adequate space between guests. It’s not a bad experience at all to sit around on a nice summer day, eating fries or nachos and drinking a few beers. Certainly not quite the same as the hardcore-barhopping of pre-COVID New York City, but close enough for now. We all have to make sacrifices, after all. So enjoy the summer and the lull as much as you can for these next few weeks.
And meanwhile, start preparing for a chaotic autumn and a brutal winter.